By 2050, Russian oil and gas companies must bring new fields with reserves of 4 billion tons of oil and 11 trillion cubic meters of gas into development in order to meet demand on the export and domestic markets. This assessment was given by the head of Rosnedra, Evgeny Petrov, during the National Oil and Gas Forum (NOF-2024).

"Taking into account the needs of the global economy and our growing economy, by 2050 "It will be necessary to involve new profitable reserves [in the amount of] about 4 billion tons of oil and 11 trillion cubic meters of gas," he said at the plenary session of the forum. The official noted that the growth in demand for oil and gas in the world will continue to grow during this period.

At the same time, Petrov drew attention to the significant oil reserves in Russia, which today belong to the category of hard-to-recover (HTR). “Today, we have about 970 billion tons of geological reserves, 3.4 billion tons of recoverable reserves. These are colossal reserves that need to be worked with,” he noted. The head of Rosnedra added that as technologies develop and Russia achieves technological sovereignty, these reserves will move from the hard-to-recover reserves category to the profitable one.

President of the oilfield services company “Geotech” Roman Panov, during the NNF, stated that the Russian oilfield services industry has “adapted to new realities.” But in order to maintain the current production rates, in his opinion, a “fundamental breakthrough” is needed. in geological exploration, in particular, intensive exploration is needed in Eastern Siberia and the Far East regions, especially in Krasnoyarsk Krai and Yakutia.

Petrov added that vertically integrated oil companies (VIOCs) are showing interest in developing technologies for the extraction of hard-to-recover reserves within the framework of technological testing grounds (a special type of license for the development of new

technologies for the study, exploration and extraction of hard-to-recover reserves).

Speaking about the demand for hydrocarbons in the future, Petrov gave the example of demand for coal, which, "despite"all forecasts", continues to grow. This is happening, according to the official, due to modern technologies for its use.

According to the Ministry of Natural Resources,Proven oil reserves in Russia (categories АВ1С1) at the beginning of 2023 amounted to 19.1 billion tons (+0.4% compared to the figure at the beginning of 2022), gas — 43.9 trillion cubic meters (-1.4%). In 2023, the increase in oil reserves, including gas condensate, amounted to 565 million tons, gas — 768 billion cubic meters. The increase in oil and gas reserves last year exceeded the level of production of these minerals. According to the Ministry of Energy, 530.6 million tons of oil (-0.9% compared to 2022) and 636.9 billion cubic meters of gas (-5.5%) were produced in Russia last year.

In 2024, Rosnedra expects an increase in oil reserves of 525 million tons, and gas of 670 billion cubic meters. Oil production is expected to be at the level of 523 million tons, gas of 667 billion cubic meters.

According to the current long-term energy strategy of Russia, oil production in the country in 2035 will be in the range of 490-555 million tons, gas from 859.7 billion to 1 trillion cubic meters. The reproduction rate of oil reserves, that is, the ratio of discovered reserves and production, to 2035. set at level 1. The Ministry of Energy is currently preparing an energy strategy for the period up to 2050.

Vedomosti sent inquiries to the Ministry of Energy and major oil and gas companies.

The volume of profitable reserves may change depending on the production technologies used and the tax regime, notes Sergei Kaufman, an analyst at FG Finam. According to his estimates, Russia's currently profitable oil reserves will last for 20-25 years of production. "4 billion tons is approximately the volume that is lacking to maintain production at the current level until 2050," the expert explains.

Western Siberia will remain the key production region (as it is now), and the Arctic will also become one, Kaufman believes. He considers Vostok Oil to be the most important promising project. "Rosneft".

FG "Finam" does not see any need for additional gas reserves.The main problem for Russia in the gas sector will be the restoration of exports against the backdrop of sanctions pressure, Kaufman believes.

The share of hard-to-recover reserves in production, according to him, will grow. This will happen against the backdrop of improved production technologies and the depletion of fields with traditional reserves, he explains. This is a global trend, and Russia is no exception, the analyst adds. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees the fuel and energy complex, said in November 2023 that the share of hard-to-recover reserves in oil production in Russia could grow to 70% by 2050. against the current 30%.

Investments in the development of new oil and gas reserves until 2050 will depend on many factors, including the tax regime, infrastructure development and the level of complexity of production at the fields being put into operation, Kaufman notes. According to a rough estimate by FG ​​Finam, about 10 trillion rubles will be required to develop oil reserves of 4 billion tons.

Energy expert Kirill Rodionov believes that the efficiency of hydrocarbon deposit development in Russia will primarily depend not on demand for oil and gas, but on Russian companies' access to modern technologies. He gives the example of Qatar and Iran, in whose waters there is de facto the same gas field, South Pars (North), which is one of the largest in the world. At the same time, Qatar is one of the three largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), while Iran, which is under sanctions, does not export LNG.

"Another example is Venezuela, which is ahead of Saudi Arabia in terms of its share in the global structure of proven oil reserves (17.5% versus 17.2%). But, unlike Saudi Arabia, it has experienced a fourfold reduction in production over the past 15 years,” he adds.

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Russia is no exception here, the analyst adds. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees the fuel and energy sector, said in November 2023 that the share of hard-to-recover reserves in oil production in Russia could grow to 70% by 2050, compared to the current 30%.

Investments in the development of new oil and gas reserves by 2050 will depend on many factors, including the tax regime, infrastructure development, and the level of complexity of production at the fields being commissioned, Kaufman notes. According to a rough estimate by FG ​​Finam, about 10 trillion rubles will be required to develop oil reserves of 4 billion tons.

Energy expert Kirill Rodionov believes that the efficiency of hydrocarbon deposit development in Russia will primarily depend not on demand for oil and gas, but on Russian companies' access to modern technologies. He gives the example of Qatar and Iran, in whose waters there is de facto the same gas field, South Pars (North), which is one of the largest in the world. At the same time, Qatar is one of the three largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), while Iran, which is under sanctions, does not export LNG.

"Another example is Venezuela, which is ahead of Saudi Arabia in terms of its share in the global structure of proven oil reserves (17.5% versus 17.2%). But, unlike Saudi Arabia, it has experienced a fourfold reduction in production over the past 15 years,” he adds.

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Russia is no exception here, the analyst adds. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who oversees the fuel and energy sector, said in November 2023 that the share of hard-to-recover reserves in oil production in Russia could grow to 70% by 2050, compared to the current 30%.

Investments in the development of new oil and gas reserves by 2050 will depend on many factors, including the tax regime, infrastructure development, and the level of complexity of production at the fields being commissioned, Kaufman notes. According to a rough estimate by FG ​​Finam, about 10 trillion rubles will be required to develop oil reserves of 4 billion tons.

Energy expert Kirill Rodionov believes that the efficiency of hydrocarbon deposit development in Russia will primarily depend not on demand for oil and gas, but on Russian companies' access to modern technologies. He gives the example of Qatar and Iran, in whose waters there is de facto the same gas field, South Pars (North), which is one of the largest in the world. At the same time, Qatar is one of the three largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), while Iran, which is under sanctions, does not export LNG.

"Another example is Venezuela, which is ahead of Saudi Arabia in terms of its share in the global structure of proven oil reserves (17.5% versus 17.2%). But, unlike Saudi Arabia, it has experienced a fourfold reduction in production over the past 15 years,” he adds.

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to develop oil reserves of 4 billion tons, about 10 trillion rubles will be required.

Energy expert Kirill Rodionov believes that the efficiency of developing hydrocarbon deposits in Russia will primarily depend not on the demand for oil and gas, but on the access of Russian companies to modern technologies. He gives the example of Qatar and Iran, in whose waters there is de facto the same gas field - South Pars (North), which is one of the largest in the world. At the same time, Qatar is one of the three largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and Iran, which is under sanctions, does not export LNG.

«Another example is Venezuela, which is ahead of Saudi Arabia in terms of its share in the global structure of proven oil reserves (17.5% versus 17.2%). But, unlike Saudi Arabia, it has experienced a fourfold reduction in production over the past 15 years,» he adds.

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to develop oil reserves of 4 billion tons, about 10 trillion rubles will be required.

Energy expert Kirill Rodionov believes that the efficiency of developing hydrocarbon deposits in Russia will primarily depend not on the demand for oil and gas, but on the access of Russian companies to modern technologies. He gives the example of Qatar and Iran, in whose waters there is de facto the same gas field - South Pars (North), which is one of the largest in the world. At the same time, Qatar is one of the three largest exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and Iran, which is under sanctions, does not export LNG.

«Another example is Venezuela, which is ahead of Saudi Arabia in terms of its share in the global structure of proven oil reserves (17.5% versus 17.2%). But, unlike Saudi Arabia, it has experienced a fourfold reduction in production over the past 15 years,» he adds.

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